Ukraine Study Group
Co-sponsored by the Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies
The Six Futures of Ukraine: Competing Scenarios for a European Pivot State
Andreas Umland, Institute for Euro-Atlantic Cooperation, Kyiv
Providing state security against Russian hybrid warfare — especially covert or blatant military aggression — will be the preeminent strategic challenge of Ukrainian nation-building as long as Putin's regime is in place. Against this background, Umland will explore six possible scenarios — options and strategies for the development of Ukraine's security situation (as well as Georgia's and Moldova's) during the coming five to 15 years:
1. The continuation of the current «gray zone» status of Kyiv, Chisinau, and Tbilisi
2. Ukraine and Georgia's permanent neutrality as a result of some Western-Russian bargain
3. Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia's accession to the EU
4. Ukraine and Georgia's entry into NATO
5. Ukraine and Georgia's Major Non-NATO Ally status within the United States
6. The creation of an Intermarium («land between the seas») coalition of East-Central European NATO member states on the one hand, and post-Soviet non-NATO countries (Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, and perhaps Azerbaijan) on the other.
These six scenarios for Ukraine's foreign affairs may or may not materialize in the foreseeable future and vary in terms of likelihood that they will occur; they would demand very different approaches and would have highly diverging implications for both Ukrainian and non-Ukrainian actors across Europe.
(Abstract adapted from introduction to Umland's article, on which this talk is based.)
This event will be available on YouTube for those who can't attend the talk.
Air travel funding to bring Dr. Andreas Umland to North America is made possible by the University of Manitoba’s J.B. Rudnyckyj Endowment.
Room S-050, CGIS South Building
1730 Cambridge Street